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Episode 3 Chapter 4 – Chessboards, Devils, and Ravens

[BGM: Fishy Aroma]

Up in Purgatorio, Battler is contemplating the thrilling dose of economics to which Beato just subjected us all.

Oh, shit, I'll have some!

...What. His cookies are famous, guys!

It's all of the above, Battler.

Weren't we talking about some kind of mystery or something?

Right, so. You realize they don't have any proof of that, right? Also that you've operated according to the “Beatrice exists and is person number 19 but isn't a witch” theory before, right? And that you couldn't prove it then, either? I'm just saying, Battler, step it up.

Technically Nanjo isn't included in any of those descriptions. He's just a doctor who visits a lot, he's not officially a servant. Nanjo culprit theory, Battler?

Yeah I really don't know why they're interpreting that debate just now as a more solid case than he had before for the existence of a 19th person.

[BGM: Core]

Now we're getting into things. And I think we all know what Battler's going to pull.

YYYYYYYYEEEEEEAAAAAAAHHHHHH

Somehow I sense in this strategy the capacity to backfire.

I—no. Battler no. Bad Battler!

Yes you can.

Well, at least he sort of understands the problem here.

It's true, after the last game he has nowhere to go but up. If he keeps up this craftiness, his days of getting trolled by witches might be coming to a middle.

Ooooorrr he could be about to get into serious trouble.

[SFX: ahaha.wav]

Hey how's it goin'.

So, explanation time.

Yes, and that's why your cunning“yell Devil's Proof at everything” strategy is about to get fucked over.

Probably, considering it's Battler, yes. Also I'm pretty sure there are black birds other than ravens, but semantics.

Right. Ssssssooooo...

These logic battles are getting too logicky! Ronove, dumb it down by talking about cookies in boxes again!

So she's going to... prove there isn't a 19th person? I wonder how. Probably with shenanigans.

Battler has 18 boxes to check and prove the bomb isn't there. Beato has one.

If I can add to Ryukishi's long series of attempts to explain Hempel's Raven by just kind of bottom-lining it? A Devil's Proof argument prevents drawing a conclusion based on a lack of evidence. Hempel's Raven creates that missing evidence via extrapolation on what you do know.

If you wanna be cheap about it, which Beato absolutely does, always, you can even just use it to manipulate the terms you're arguing with.

This game is not fair.

But still, what it basically comes down to is an unchanged situation.

Probably. It's pretty unlikely it wasn't one of the 18, Battler. You know, as long as you don't give up on the witch front, you can still win. You took on the 19th person battle voluntarily. Just try a different tactic and...

No, I mean it, you should...

Oh son of a bitch he's really trying this.

Still, the way Beato rolls, she has little choice but to consider this inane shit an actual fairly impressive move.

Yeah! “Twisted” is the only kind of logic Battler even knows!

Unfortunately for Battler, he's trying to muscle in on Beato's turf. She has kind of a knack for condensing infinitely difficult tasks using magic. For example...

All she has to say is there are no more than 19 people on the island. Or, if she can, no more than 18.

...That's a good question, Battler. Cackling in these situations usually isn't exactly your role.

...Well, you heard the man, Beato. Make your move I guess?

Of course. The red might embarrass Battler, but in the end all it can do is give him information. And like a Devil's Proof, Beato's side of the debate relies on a lack thereof. The only times it's effective for her, really, are when she can destroy his only theory with one strike.

And right now, she's stalling.

[BGM: Dread of the Grave]

Logic is not a loyal weapon. If Beato can use Devil's Proof, so can Battler.

And if she can use Hempel's Raven, or more simply the contrapositive, so can he. If she refuses to deny something in red, he can still cling to it.

I know your sweet theme song is playing and all, but goddammit, Battler, slow down. You know she can refuse until later to lay a trap, even if she could say it at any time. It's happened already.

Still, I can't disapprove of the general gist of this tactic. Unless her existence is disproven, the theoretical Beatrice of the hidden mansion is the most suspicious person on the island by a landslide.

I don't know why you would expect her to confirm that. It has no effect at all other than helping you massively.

It seems to just be a taunt. But she probably can't conclusively prove there's no nineteenth person, as she claimed she would. Not unless she uses the red later. And, you know, forces Battler to suspect one of the eighteen.

Just so we're clear, X doesn't have to be a positive number. It could be zero.

So what's it gonna be, Beato?

No one will ever believe anything as surely as Battler doesn't believe in witches.

Yeah, it's happened. He's not as good at it as she is, but he's actually countertrolling her.

YOU WIN THIS TIME, GADGET

She helpfully points out what I did earlier. Not using red does not automatically mean she can't. Don't. Get. Cocky.

Fuck it, who am I kidding. He's gonna get cocky.

When he's not being insulting and passive-aggressive, Ronove's damned friendly. No pun intended.

Regardless, there's no trusting witches or demons.

I assume he looked her right in the eyes when he said the thing about arrogance.

Once again, Battler starts the game strong. Remind me: the last time he did that, how long did it take things to devolve into goats and nudity and cannibalism?

Uh oh.

Uh... huh?

[SFX: ahaha.wav]

Back on the gameboard.

Letting Rosa speak for her... proving there's no nineteenth person without using red... does that mean Rosa knows something? She's acting like she does.